Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: AI's Potential, OpenAI Rivalry, GenAI Business, Doomerism

…i get very angry when people call me a doomer when you know when when someone's like this guy's a doomer he wants to slow things down you heard what i just said like you…quotative · filler

…someone's like this guy's a doomer he wants to slow things down you heard what i just said like you know my father died because of you know cures that you know could have could have happened…filler · filler

…you know could have could have happened a few years later i understand the i've never said anything like that that's an outrageous lie that's the most outrageous wong what's gotten into you i think anthropic myself…proper use

…about what's gonna happen and that's not to say you know i think there's an incredible number of like positive applications of ai right i've i've kind of continued to talk about that i read this i…filler · filler

…models just start getting stop getting better for reasons we don't understand or maybe reasons we do understand like you know data or compute availability and then everything i'm saying just seems seems totally silly and everyone…proper use

…been consistent on this over the years is you know there are these terms in the ai world like agi and superintelligence like you'll hear leaders of companies say we've achieved agi we're moving on to superintelligence…proper use

…over the years is you know there are these terms in the ai world like agi and superintelligence like you'll hear leaders of companies say we've achieved agi we're moving on to superintelligence or like it's really…filler · filler

…and superintelligence like you'll hear leaders of companies say we've achieved agi we're moving on to superintelligence or like it's really exciting that someone stopped working on agi and started working on superintelligence so i think these…filler · filler

…are totally meaningless i don't know what agi is i don't know what superintelligence is it it sounds like a it sounds like a marketing term it is marketing yeah it's it sounds like you know something…proper use

…don't know what agi is i don't know what superintelligence is it it sounds like a it sounds like a marketing term it is marketing yeah it's it sounds like you know something something designed to activate…proper use

…it it sounds like a it sounds like a marketing term it is marketing yeah it's it sounds like you know something something designed to activate people's people's dopamine so you'll see in public i never use…proper use

…seen more progress on say math and code where the models are you know getting pretty close to like a high professional level and less on more subjective tasks but i think that is very much a…hedge · filler

…i see this exponential and i say look people aren't very good at making sense of exponentials right like you know if if something is doubling every six months then uh you know two years before it…filler · filler

…if something is doubling every six months then uh you know two years before it happens it looks like it's only one sixteenth of the way there and and so we are sitting here in the middle…proper use

…two years i'm not saying it will but suppose it continued for two years you know you're you're like well into the hundred billions i'm not saying that'll happen i'm saying the situation is that when you're…hedge · filler

…by it two years away from when the exponential goes totally crazy it it you know it looks like it's just starting to be a thing um and so that's the fundamental dynamic you know we saw…proper use

…with the internet in the we saw that with the internet in the 90s right where it was like you know networking speeds and the underlying speed of the computers were getting fast and over a few…filler · filler

…would happen and so that's that's where i'm coming from that's what i think now i don't know like if a bunch of satellites crashed maybe the internet would have taken longer if there was an economic…filler · filler

…can look at you know sweebench growing from uh you know i think 18 months ago was at like 3 or something um growing all the way to you know 72 to 80 depending on how you…hedge · filler

…be very high right if i think of the field i used to be in biology and medicine like you know let's say i had a very smart nobel prize winner and you know i i said…filler · filler

…things you have this incredibly smart mind but you know you can't you can't you know you can't like read new textbooks or absorb any new information i mean that would be difficult but like still if…filler · filler

…you can't like read new textbooks or absorb any new information i mean that would be difficult but like still if you had like 10 million of those like they're they're still gonna make a lot of…filler · filler

…textbooks or absorb any new information i mean that would be difficult but like still if you had like 10 million of those like they're they're still gonna make a lot of biology breakthroughs like they're gonna…hedge · filler

…information i mean that would be difficult but like still if you had like 10 million of those like they're they're still gonna make a lot of biology breakthroughs like they're gonna be limited they're gonna be…filler · filler

…you had like 10 million of those like they're they're still gonna make a lot of biology breakthroughs like they're gonna be limited they're gonna be able to do some things humans can't and there are some…filler · filler

…can do that they can't but but but even that even if we impose that as a ceiling like man that's pretty damned impressive and transformative and even if i said you never solved that like i…filler · filler

…ceiling like man that's pretty damned impressive and transformative and even if i said you never solved that like i think you know i think people are underestimating the impact but but look context windows are getting…filler · filler

…conversation it absorbs information the underlying weights of the model may not change but but you know just like i'm talking to you here and we're having a conversation and i listen to the things you say…proper use

…listen to the things you say and i i you know i think and i and and i like respond to them the models are able to do that and and from a from an from a…filler · filler

…the gaps but it fills in many of the gaps and then there are a number of things like learning and memory that do allow us to update the weights so you know there there are there…proper use

…we used to many years ago talk about inner loops and outer loops right the inner loop is like i have some episode and i learned some things in that episode and i'm trying to optimize for…filler · filler

…is a way to learn the continual learning one thing we've learned in ai is whenever it feels like there's some fundamental obstacle like two years ago we thought there was this fundamental obstacle around uh around…proper use

…the continual learning one thing we've learned in ai is whenever it feels like there's some fundamental obstacle like two years ago we thought there was this fundamental obstacle around uh around reasoning turned out just to…proper use

…code and we you know we don't really talk externally that much about why why claude is so like i said we don't talk externally about it i have to ask so you know every new version…filler · filler

…know model that we build and you know that's why we you know i've said these things about like you know we're trying to optimize for like talent density as much as possible like you need that…filler · filler

…that's why we you know i've said these things about like you know we're trying to optimize for like talent density as much as possible like you need that talent density in order i think at this…filler · filler

…these things about like you know we're trying to optimize for like talent density as much as possible like you need that talent density in order i think at this point uh a little short of 20…filler · filler

…and so we've been in a position you know three years ago where you know these differences were like a thousand x and now you're saying you know with 20 billion dollars can you compete can can…hedge · filler

…45 so that that 10x a year i mean you know every every you know every year i like suspect that we'll grow at that scale and and every year i'm almost afraid to say it publicly…filler · filler

…we'll grow at that scale and and every year i'm almost afraid to say it publicly because i'm like no it couldn't it couldn't possibly happen again so you know i think i think the growth at…quotative · filler

…couldn't it couldn't possibly happen again so you know i think i think the growth at that scale like kind of speaks for itself in terms of our ability to compete with the accurate um i won't…filler · filler

…i don't know one percent of consumers care about that at all right 99 are just gonna be like i don't understand it either way um but now suppose i go to pfizer and i say you…quotative · filler

…go to pfizer and i say you know i've improved this from undergrad at biochemistry to granite biochemistry like this is gonna be the biggest deal in the world right they might pay 10 times more for…filler · filler

…is gonna be the biggest deal in the world right they might pay 10 times more for something like that it might have 10 times more value to them and so the general aim of making the…proper use

…also able to s to bring many of the positive applications right the things i wrote about in like machines of loving grace of like solving the problems of biomedicine solving the problems of geopolitics solving the…filler · filler

…many of the positive applications right the things i wrote about in like machines of loving grace of like solving the problems of biomedicine solving the problems of geopolitics solving the problems of you know of economic…filler · filler

…solving the problems of you know of economic development um you know as well as more prosaic things like finance or legal or productivity or insurance um i think it gives a better incentive to kind of…proper use

…as far as uh as as as as far as possible and i think in many ways it's like it may even be a more a more a more positive business so i would say we're making…filler · filler

…started getting quick adoption this was around the time that you know a lot of the coding companies like cursor windsurf github augment code started started exploding in in popularity and then when we saw how popular…proper use

…of this uh as of the time of this interview we've adjusted that particularly on the larger models like opus i think it's no longer possible to spend that much with a with a with a 200…proper use

…those who make the the the um the the the underlying applications so again without being too specific like i think there are some assumptions in your question that are not necessarily correct um uh you know…filler · filler

…than smaller models um i think the technique you're referring to is maybe mixture of experts or something like that so whether your models are mixture of experts or not like mixture of experts is is like…proper use

…maybe mixture of experts or something like that so whether your models are mixture of experts or not like mixture of experts is is like a way to run models more cheaply that have a given number…filler · filler

…like that so whether your models are mixture of experts or not like mixture of experts is is like a way to run models more cheaply that have a given number of parameters it's a way to…filler · filler

…the i think that's yeah look so i um you know in in in in in terms of like the cost of the models like one thing you'd be surprised by people you know people kind of…filler · filler

…so i um you know in in in in in terms of like the cost of the models like one thing you'd be surprised by people you know people kind of impute this thing to like oh…filler · filler

…models like one thing you'd be surprised by people you know people kind of impute this thing to like oh man it's gonna be really hard to get the margins from like x percent to y percent…filler · filler

…of impute this thing to like oh man it's gonna be really hard to get the margins from like x percent to y percent we make improvements all the time that make the models like 50 more…filler · filler

…margins from like x percent to y percent we make improvements all the time that make the models like 50 more efficient than they are before we are just at the beginning of optimizing inference um uh…hedge · filler

…is actually already fairly profitable there are separate things there's you know the cost of paying people and like buildings that is actually not that that large in the scheme of things the big cost is the…filler · filler