Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: AI's Potential, OpenAI Rivalry, GenAI Business, Doomerism

…i get very angry when people call me a doomer when someone's like this guy's a doomer he wants to slow things down you heard what i just said like you…quotative · filler

…someone's like this guy's a doomer he wants to slow things down you heard what i just said like you know my father died because of cures that could have happened a few years later i understand…filler · filler

…i understand the benefit of this technology i'm sure you've heard the criticism from i've never said anything like that that's an outrageous lie that's the most outrageous lie i've ever heard ceo jensen wang what's gotten…proper use

…what's going to happen and that's not to say you know i think there's an incredible number of like positive applications of ai right i've kind of continued to talk about that i read this i wrote…filler · filler

…years the models just stop getting better for reasons we don't understand or maybe reasons we do understand like you know data or compute availability and then everything i'm saying just seems totally silly and everyone makes…proper use

…been consistent on this over the years is you know there are these terms in the ai world like agi and superintelligence like you'll hear leaders of companies say we've achieved agi we're moving on to superintelligence…proper use

…over the years is you know there are these terms in the ai world like agi and superintelligence like you'll hear leaders of companies say we've achieved agi we're moving on to superintelligence or like it's really…filler · filler

…and superintelligence like you'll hear leaders of companies say we've achieved agi we're moving on to superintelligence or like it's really exciting that someone stopped working on agi and started working on superintelligence so i think these…filler · filler

…terms are totally meaningless i don't know what agi is i don't know what superintelligence is it sounds like a marketing term it is marketing yeah it sounds like you know something designed to activate people's dopamine…proper use

…i don't know what superintelligence is it sounds like a marketing term it is marketing yeah it sounds like you know something designed to activate people's dopamine so you'll see in public i never use those terms…proper use

…seen more progress on say math and code where the models are you know getting pretty close to like a high professional level and less on more subjective tasks but i think that is very much a…hedge · filler

…i see this exponential and i say look people aren't very good at making sense of exponentials right like you know if something is doubling every six months then you know two years before it happens it…filler · filler

…know if something is doubling every six months then you know two years before it happens it looks like it's only one sixteenth of the way there and so we are sitting here in the middle of…proper use

…for two years i'm not saying it will but suppose it continued for two years you know you're like well into the 100 billions i'm not saying that'll happen i'm saying the situation is that when you're…filler · filler

…get fooled by it two years away from when the exponential goes totally crazy you know it looks like it's just starting to be a thing and so that's the fundamental dynamic you know we saw that…proper use

…the fundamental dynamic you know we saw that with the internet in the 90s right where it was like you know networking speeds and the underlying speed of the computers were getting fast and over a few…filler · filler

…it would happen and so that's where i'm coming from that's what i think now i don't know like if a bunch of satellites crashed maybe the internet would have taken longer if there was an economic…filler · filler

…look at you know swe bench growing from you know i think 18 months ago it was at like 3 or something growing all the way to you know 72 to 80 depending on how you measure…hedge · filler

…exponential is continuing and we don't see any diminishing returns but there are some liabilities it seems seems like a glaring liability what do you think about that so first of all i would say even if…proper use

…be very high right if i think of the field i used to be in biology and medicine like you know let's say i had a very smart nobel prize winner and you know i said okay…filler · filler

…all these things you have this incredibly smart mind but you know you can't you know you can't like read new textbooks or absorb any new information i mean that would be difficult but like still if…filler · filler

…you can't like read new textbooks or absorb any new information i mean that would be difficult but like still if you had like 10 million of those like they're still going to make a lot of…filler · filler

…textbooks or absorb any new information i mean that would be difficult but like still if you had like 10 million of those like they're still going to make a lot of biology breakthroughs like they're going…hedge · filler

…information i mean that would be difficult but like still if you had like 10 million of those like they're still going to make a lot of biology breakthroughs like they're going to be limited they're going…filler · filler

…you had like 10 million of those like they're still going to make a lot of biology breakthroughs like they're going to be limited they're going to be able to do some things humans can't and there…filler · filler

…things humans can do that they can't but even that even if we impose that as a ceiling like man that's pretty damned impressive and transformative and even if i said you never solved that like i…filler · filler

…ceiling like man that's pretty damned impressive and transformative and even if i said you never solved that like i think you know i think people are underestimating the impact but look context windows are getting longer…filler · filler

…a conversation it absorbs information the underlying weights of the model may not change but you know just like i'm talking to you here and we're having a conversation and i listen to the things you say…proper use

…a conversation and i listen to the things you say and i you know i think and i like respond to them the models are able to do that and from a machine learning perspective from an…proper use

…the gaps but it fills in many of the gaps and then there are a number of things like learning and memory that do allow us to update the weights so you know there are a number…proper use

…we used to many years ago talk about inner loops and outer loops right the inner loop is like i have some episode and i learned some things in that episode and i'm trying to optimize for…quotative · filler

…is a way to learn the continual learning one thing we've learned in ai is whenever it feels like there's some fundamental obstacle like two years ago we thought there was this fundamental obstacle around reasoning turned…proper use

…the continual learning one thing we've learned in ai is whenever it feels like there's some fundamental obstacle like two years ago we thought there was this fundamental obstacle around reasoning turned out just to be rl…hedge · filler

…that much about why claude is so good at code why is it so good at code and like i said we don't talk externally about it i have to ask so you know every new version…filler · filler

…know model that we build and you know that's why we you know i've said these things about like you know we're trying to optimize for like talent density as much as possible like you need that…filler · filler

…that's why we you know i've said these things about like you know we're trying to optimize for like talent density as much as possible like you need that talent density in order to invent the new…filler · filler

…these things about like you know we're trying to optimize for like talent density as much as possible like you need that talent density in order to invent the new techniques you know there's one thing that's…filler · filler

…with the mission and you know i you know i you know i think there's selection effects here like you know i you know are they getting the people who are most enthusiastic or most mission aligned…filler · filler

…and so we've been in a position you know three years ago where you know these differences were like 1 000x and now you're saying you know with 20 billion can you compete with 100 billion and…hedge · filler

…i said this before 4 5 so that 10x a year i mean you know every year i like suspect that we'll grow at that scale and every year i'm almost afraid to say it publicly because…proper use

…that we'll grow at that scale and every year i'm almost afraid to say it publicly because i'm like no it couldn't possibly happen again so you know i think the growth at that scale like kind…quotative · filler

…i'm like no it couldn't possibly happen again so you know i think the growth at that scale like kind of speaks for itself in terms of our ability to compete with the big players okay so…filler · filler

…apps business but yes the majority comes through the api so you're making the most on this technology like yeah i mean i would say i wouldn't quite put it that way i think we've i would…filler · filler

…i don't know 1 of consumers care about that at all right 99 are just going to be like i don't understand it either way but now suppose i go to pfizer and i say you know…quotative · filler

…to pfizer and i say you know i've improved this from undergrad at biochemistry to grad at biochemistry like this is going to be the biggest deal in the world right they might pay 10 times more…filler · filler

…going to be the biggest deal in the world right they might pay 10 times more for something like that it might have 10 times more value to them and so the general aim of making the…proper use

…smarter but also able to bring many of the positive applications right the things i wrote about in like machines of loving grace of like solving the problems of biomedicine solving the problems of geopolitics solving the…proper use

…many of the positive applications right the things i wrote about in like machines of loving grace of like solving the problems of biomedicine solving the problems of geopolitics solving the problems of you know of economic…filler · filler

…geopolitics solving the problems of you know of economic development you know as well as more prosaic things like finance or legal or productivity or insurance i think it gives a better incentive to kind of develop…proper use

…incentive to kind of develop the models as far as possible and i think in many ways it's like it may even be a more positive business so i would say we're making a bet on the…filler · filler

…started getting quick adoption this was around the time that you know a lot of the coding companies like cursor windsurf github augment code started exploding in popularity and then when we saw how popular it was…proper use

…time of this as of the time of this interview we've adjusted that particularly on the larger models like opus i think it's no longer possible to spend that much with a 200 subscription and you know…proper use

…who make the the the the the the the the underlying applications so again without being too specific like i think there are some assumptions in your question that are not necessarily correct you know i tell…filler · filler

…smaller models you know i think the technique you're referring to is maybe mixture of experts or something like that so whether your models are a mixture of experts or not like mixture of experts is like…proper use

…mixture of experts or something like that so whether your models are a mixture of experts or not like mixture of experts is like a way to run models more cheaply they have a given number of…filler · filler

…like that so whether your models are a mixture of experts or not like mixture of experts is like a way to run models more cheaply they have a given number of parameters it's a way to…filler · filler

…to find out what the truth is from you yeah look so i you know in terms of like the cost of the models like one thing you'd be surprised by people you know people kind of…filler · filler

…is from you yeah look so i you know in terms of like the cost of the models like one thing you'd be surprised by people you know people kind of impute this thing to like oh…filler · filler

…models like one thing you'd be surprised by people you know people kind of impute this thing to like oh man it's going to be really hard to get the margins from like x percent to y…quotative · filler

…impute this thing to like oh man it's going to be really hard to get the margins from like x percent to y percent we make improvements all the time that make the models like 50 percent…hedge · filler